How the US mid-term elections can impact the stock market

What are mid-term elections, and how do they work

Midterm elections in the United States refer to the general elections held in November of every even-numbered year. These elections take place halfway through the current president's four-year term and are used to determine which party will control Congress for the next two years. Every seat in the House of Representatives and one-third of seats in the Senate are up for grabs in each midterm election. In recent years, midterms have also been used as a referendum on the president's performance. If the president's party loses control of Congress, it can make it difficult for them to pass their legislative agenda. As a result, midterms can have a major impact on the direction of the country.

The history of the stock market during midterm election years

In the United States, the stock market often experiences turbulence during midterm election years. This is due to various factors, including investor uncertainty about which party will control Congress and the potential for legislative gridlock. In addition, midterms often coincide with an economic slowdown, leading to corporate earnings being revised downward. As a result, many investors choose to reduce their exposure to stocks during these years. However, some investors believe that midterm elections present a buying opportunity, as stock prices tend to rebound in the year following the elections. Historically, the stock market has performed well in the months leading up to midterm elections but has tended to experience weakness in the months immediately following the vote. As a result, investors who are considering making changes to their portfolios during a midterm year should carefully consider the risks and potential rewards before making any decisions.

What to watch for in the days and weeks leading up to the election

There are a few key things to watch for in the weeks leading up to Election Day.

1. First, pay attention to the candidates' economic plans. How do they propose to create jobs, and reduce deficits and inflation? What are their thoughts on taxation and government spending?

2. Second, make sure you understand where the candidates stand on social issues. What are their plans for healthcare reform? What is their position on gun control?

3. Finally, take a close look at the candidates' foreign policy positions.

By taking the time to educate yourself on the important issues will help you make a calculated guess of possible market reaction to different candidates winning the election.

How investors should react to the results of the upcoming mid-term elections

The midterm elections are fast approaching, and with them comes a great deal of uncertainty. Many investors wonder how the results will affect the markets and what steps they should take to protect their portfolios. While it is impossible to predict the exact outcome of the elections, there are a few general guidelines that investors can follow.

1. First, it is important to remember that regardless of which party controls Congress, the markets will always be volatile. Expecting and preparing for volatility is the best course of action.

2. Second, it is essential to diversify one's portfolio to mitigate risk. Diversification can happen within an asset class (like different sectors or industry groups of stocks), across asset classes (like stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, cash) or across strategies (like long, short, hedge).

3. And finally, it is important to have a set of concrete trading/investment strategy in place so that short-term fluctuations in the market do not have a significant impact on one's overall financial goals. By following a systematic trading and investing approach traders/investors can withstand any market environment and thrive.

By build a strong domain knowledge about how the market works traders can identify the key steps required to create their trading systems.  Our co-founder and CEO, Ruban Phukan, has written a foundational book for the next generation of the stock market, forex, and crypto traders on how markets work and how to approach the market in a systematic way. You can read more here: